PVC After the Holiday: Low, Loss- Making, and Range-Bound

The PVC market is weak after the National Day holiday. Carbide-route suspension grade PVC in East China is at RMB 4,840–4,900/MT. Every producer is losing money: carbide-route plants lose RMB 471–766 per tonne and ethylene-route plants lose RMB 815 per tonne. These losses put a ceiling on prices, and cost puts a floor under them. Demand is the real problem. Property investment fell 19.9% and new housing starts fell 24.8% in January–August. Pipe makers run at 18.65% and profile makers at 21.09%. The "peak season" has not arrived. Social inventory is 1.0649 million MT (+2.67%) and still rising.