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*The first half of 2026 was a war movie. The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow sea lane through which a fifth of the world's oil and a huge share of its chemicals sail — became the most-watched stretch of

water on earth. Prices of everything from crude oil to methanol spiked, tankers took the long way  around, and every chemical buyer in Asia learned some geograph.*

The near-term trading logic in international crude remains unchanged. On the upside: Israel has still not committed to a complete ceasefire, and several Middle Eastern producers will need time to restore crude output. On the downside: the US–Iran situation is easing, the Strait of Hormuz is gradually returning to normal navigation, demand remains weak, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are building. With Washington and Tehran continuing to send constructive signals on follow-up talks, the global supply gap keeps repairing — the bias in international oil prices stays to the downside.