Sulfur: Anatomy of a Super-Cycle

Global sulfur is a supply-chain game centred on the Middle East and in 2026 the centre of that game caught fire. Of ~80 Mt global output, five Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Iran, Kuwait) produce ~20 Mt — 24% of output but nearly half of seaborne export supply, dominating the spot trade. The core artery runs Gulf → Asia. China bought ~5.4 Mt from the Middle East in 2025 (56% of imports); Indonesia sources over 75% of its sulfur there.