AJC Weekly Brief

The Hormuz closure supercharges the entire complex — all nine tracked commodities close higher, with naphtha up 15% and MEG up 10% — while the structural map redraws itself: India switches on the 9 MTPA HRRL refinery, Dow retires three European plants, and Ineos bets on food-grade recycled polyethylene in Norway.

This week's report shows a firmer tone across China's chemical markets, led by a sharp 15.17% jump in MTBE, along with gains in Propylene Oxide, Hydrochloric Acid, Styrene, and Acetone. The rubber & plastics segment also traded higher — LLDPE, PS, PP, and SBR all posted gains — while energy prices were mixed, with LNG and Diesel firming up but crude oil softening. Liquid Ammonia and Titanium Dioxide were among the few notable decliners. 

Global sulfur is a supply-chain game centred on the Middle East and in 2026 the centre of that game caught fire. Of ~80 Mt global output, five Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Iran, Kuwait) produce ~20 Mt — 24% of output but nearly half of seaborne export supply, dominating the spot trade. The core artery runs Gulf → Asia. China bought ~5.4 Mt from the Middle East in 2025 (56% of imports); Indonesia sources over 75% of its sulfur there.