ChemInsight 360

Ibuprofen is in short supply in Europe. At the same time, one of India’s ibuprofen producers is weighing a sale or exit from the business. Both events land on a market that has already left its expansion phase behind: global effective capacity sits at roughly 36,000–37,000 tonnes per year, India and China together control well over 70% of it, and the competitive field has consolidated to seven core players plus BASF at the premium end.

Cost push at the bottom of the chain, quota discipline in the middle, demand fatigue at the top. Methanol and chlorine lifted chloromethanes; refrigerants sat unchanged on firm quota-backed quotes; fluoropolymers kept discounting into an off-season with no buyer in a hurry.

Cost push at the bottom of the chain, quota discipline in the middle, demand fatigue at the top. Methanol and chlorine lifted chloromethanes; refrigerants sat unchanged on firm quota-backed quotes; fluoropolymers kept discounting into an off-season with no buyer in a hurry.

The marginal increment brought by Kazakhstan's export ban removal, 132,000 tonnes via the restarted sea corridor, is not yet sufficient to offset the supply gap caused by the continued restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz. Market logic has shifted from “price games” to “logistics feasibility” - the rise of Canadian alternative supply is reshaping trade patterns, but price declines still await a substantive resolution of shipping route risks.

India's agrochemical market is not in one cycle; it is in several at once. Our channel checks with domestic manufacturers over the past fortnight returned readings that, taken at face value, contradict each other: one integrated assessment places domestic demand roughly 10–12% below last year, while a senior channel voice rates the current market a 9 out of 10, describing a slow H1 that has now "gained pace." Both are defensible. The market has bifurcated by molecule, by crop, by inventory position, and by company size and averages are now the least useful number in the sector.

July exports fell sharply and below expectations. China exported 216.2 kt of PVC powder in July 2026 — down 28.5% month-on-month and 34.6% year-on-year.The year-to-date base remains strong. January–July cumulative exports reached 2.60 million tonnes, still up 13.7% year-on-year.India flows collapsed. Shipments to India were just 34.5 kt in July — 15.96% of total exports versus a 37.88% share over January–June; though India remained the single largest destination.

*Titanium-chain products in China spent H1 2026 being whipsawed by the cost side, and price trends diverged sharply. End-use demand showed no material recovery even as titanium product supply kept

expanding, leaving the industry squeezed from both ends. Cost-push dynamics handed titanium dioxide a rare, strong rally with a sizeable cumulative gain in H1 while the titanium feedstock market stayed locked in a weak configuration, dragged by relentless price-pressing from downstream buyers, with ore prices sliding to multi-year lows.*

The near-term trading logic in international crude remains unchanged. On the upside: Israel has still not committed to a complete ceasefire, and several Middle Eastern producers will need time to restore crude output. On the downside: the US–Iran situation is easing, the Strait of Hormuz is gradually returning to normal navigation, demand remains weak, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are building. With Washington and Tehran continuing to send constructive signals on follow-up talks, the global supply gap keeps repairing — the bias in international oil prices stays to the downside.

Key chemical commodities and their prices from China.