China Insider

China makes more dye every year and earns less doing it. Between 2021 and 2025 national dye output rose from 856,000 t to 983,000 t (3.5% CAGR), yet industry output value fell from RMB 69.9 bn to RMB 57.1 bn (-4.9% CAGR) and total profit halved, from RMB 9.5 bn to RMB 5.0 bn (-14.9% CAGR). The Chinese trade's own verdict on the 14th Five-Year period: "more output, no more revenue, no more profit.

*A week after our 2 September edition, the electrolyte chain is still the only part of the battery-materials board moving up and it moved again on 8 September. DMC jumped 6.35% in a single session to

RMB 6,700/t, with EMC, DEC and EC all higher. Everything cobalt-linked went the other way: the cobalt salts fell 2–3%, ternary precursors 1.2–1.6%, and every LCO grade about 1.5%. Lithium, LFP,

anode graphite and formulated electrolyte were unchanged.*

Carbon black prices were flat week-on-week (4 → 8 Sept) across all six tracked regions and four grades, holding at elevated levels: N220 RMB 9,700–10,400/MT, N330/N660 RMB 8,700–9,200/MT, N550 RMB 9,100–9,600/MT.

The PVC futures board moved from RMB 4,578/MT to RMB 5,128/MT, and producer ex-works prices followed within days: Xinfa +500, Dongfang +460, Lutai +340.

Producer presales jumped 33.7% week-on-week to 1.013 million MT, and both social and plant inventories kept drawing down.

The ask has become the list price. From 2 September, two Chinese producers officially carry H-Acid at RMB 150,000/MT; up 275% in eight months and reactive dyes are following, with downstream quotes at RMB 40/kg, up 82% this year. This edition tracks the confirmation, the three pillars holding the price up, and the first serious question being asked inside China: is H-Acid really worth 150,000

Days after breaking RMB 100,000, Chinese H-Acid producers are quoting RMB 150,000/MT: up 275% in eight months and past the record set after the 2019 Xiangshui accident. But a quote is an ask, not a deal. This edition separates the two, tracks the first dye-price response, and ranks who can actually convert the spike into profit.

One week after our special edition, Chinese H-Acid has punched through RMB 100,000/MT; a historic high, up 150% year-to-date and squarely inside the upside scenario AJC laid out on 24 August. This follow-up covers what drove the breakout, how deep the supply hole now runs, and who is built to survive it.

*2025 was the year China's acid market stopped behaving like a by-product and started trading like a commodity in its own right. Capacity reached 154.6 million tonnes (+9.2%), output 127.8 million tonnes

(+5.3%): 39.1% of world production yet the average domestic acid price more than doubled to RMB 615/t (+108.5%), swinging between RMB 355 and RMB 980 through the year. Exports surged 73.3% to 4.65 million tonnes while acid imports fell 22.1% to just 126 kt. Behind it all sits sulphur: domestic output up 5.9%, imports down 3.5%, prices up 128.2%, and the domestic sulphur average at RMB 2,556.5/t up 128.3%.*

China's first-half energy scorecard confirms the thesis AJC laid out in The Dragon Profits While the World Burns: coal is not going anywhere. It anchors the system as the safety net, while renewables sprint ahead as the growth engine and the chemical industry sits squarely at the intersection of both tracks.