China Insider

*The first half of 2026 was a war movie. The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow sea lane through which a fifth of the world's oil and a huge share of its chemicals sail — became the most-watched stretch of

water on earth. Prices of everything from crude oil to methanol spiked, tankers took the long way  around, and every chemical buyer in Asia learned some geograph.*

For the first time in its industrial history, China — the world's largest buyer of sulfur, is on the wrong side of a shortage. Imports have halved, port stocks have fallen to a decade low, and a commodity that spent ten years below ¥2,000/t has torn through ¥12,000. This is the anatomy of a super-cycle nobody planned for.

China's PVC industry has reached the end of a decade-long capacity build. 2025 closes the expansion cycle with 30 Mt of nameplate capacity, while demand contracts to 19.96 Mt — the widest supply–demand gap in the sector's history.

China’s methanol system is overwhelmingly home-grown and coal-based — the country that pioneered coal-to-methanol now runs on it. Of ~206 (10k t) of weekly output, coal contributes ~83%, with coke-oven gas (~9%) and natural gas (~7%) the remainder.